As America's economy begins to cool, a number of economists have begun to predict only modest gains in the prices of single-family homes during the next year. The consensus is that home prices will rise between 3 and 4%, which is a respectable increase, but well below the 10% nationwide average over the past five years.
Ironically, the biggest slowdowns are likely to take place in the areas of the country that have seen the hottest real estate markets over that five-year period, including New York, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas. However, the real estate price slowdown is expected to reach many other parts of the country over the course of the next year, as well.
In an interesting twist, a number of real estate markets that have been slow over the past five years will begin to see upturns as the affordability of their home prices begins to catch the eye of buyers unwilling to pay the rapidly rising prices they see in other areas. In fact, a number of the areas that are predicted to see the most rapid price rises may surprise you. For instance, five of the top ten cities are located in Washington State, led by Wenatchee, which is expected to see a 16% gain over the next year. The nation's fast-rising real estate prices are expected to occur in Panama City, Florida, at 21%. Surprisingly, El Centro is the only California city listed among the top ten markets, which should raise a number of eyebrows.
Those double-digit increases are again respectable, but nowhere near the 20% average increase for America's top ten fastest rising home prices over the past five years.
The other four Washington cities and their rates of increase are: Mount Vernon (14%), Yakima (13%), Olympia (13%), and Spokane (12%). Two other Florida cities made the top ten list: Lakeland (14%) and Ocala (13%). Rounding out the top ten was Flagstaff, Arizona (12%).
Some areas of the country that have been quite hot over the past several years may actually begin to experience price declines, such as Santa Barbara, California, which may see a 3% decrease in its average home price. Las Vegas may also experience a similar price decline over the next year.
The slowest gaining areas of the country over the past five years have been in the Midwest and South, and especially in Ohio and Indiana, which contributed five of the slowest American real estate markets during the period from 2001-2005. For instance, Lafayette, Indiana, averaged just 2.3% annually over that time, which represented an increase of only 10% of the gains experienced by the nation's hottest real estate markets. The largest city among the bottom ten markets was Memphis, Tennessee, according to the Census Bureau, with a population of about 700,000.
Whatever the statistics above stated, it should be pointed out that many successful investors make a lot of money in the those cities labeled "the bottom ten." No matter what happens in the home market, smart investors know how to make money in real estate.
All in all, real estate prices should rise somewhat, unless you happen to live in one of those areas that has been red hot since 2001, but don't expect to see the spectacular increases you've seen over the past five years.
Copyright © 2006 Jeanette J. Fisher
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